Friday, 6 January 2012

Same Again Next Year?

Today being the day after 12th Night, I took the Christmas lights and decorations down. And as I was putting everything away in boxes I wondered whether I would be doing the same thing again at the same time next year.

It struck me, you see, that there’s a question of probability involved. A person aged 10 and in average health has a very high probability of still being here in a year’s time. A person aged 110 and in average health, however, has a much lower probability. So does that mean there’s a sliding scale in operation, meaning that as each year concludes, the statistical probability of making it through another year gets lower? Or is my reasoning askew? I always did find probability theory difficult.

And of more immediate concern, I’m also finding it difficult to decide whether or not to send an e-mail to America. I’m tired and my instinct feels untrustworthy.

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